This post updates the post of 28 May 2013. It repeats some of the things said there, then tracks the changes since then and corrects, refines and evaluates what was said.
The nation of Israel is in a very unique, but fragile position. It is a very powerful nation for its size surrounded by other nation’s which are jealous of its prosperity, hate its presence and would destroy it if possible. These other nations will form alliances with it if that is advantageous to them, but there is no certainty that these alliances will continue long term. These nations will also tolerate peace treaties if necessary. But underlying all this is a jealous hatred and a deep rooted anger. In fact all the nations of the earth harbour deep wounds that go back 1,000’s of years. Even within the nations around Israel, there is anger against the corruption of wealthy rulers and fears because of the economic insecurity of the future which led to the rebellion as witnessed by the current conflict in Syria and the Arab Spring uprisings of the last few years. But there are bigger forces at work. Powers external to Syria are seeking to capitalise on the Syrian conflict to gain advantage for themselves as a greater priority than peace. To add to the complexity, the Syrian conflict is now adding a Sunni verses Shiite flavour.
But overall, Israel is a nation whose security is at high risk. This risk has been present since its nation formation in 1948. Although there are strong, sympathetic elements within some outside countries, especially the U.S., ultimately they will make decisions to support Israel only if it continues to be advantageous for them to do so. Overall, the U.S. support for Israel since the Second World War has been huge and there is a substantial community within the U.S., largely Christian as well as Jewish who favour Israel. However, especially in the last few years, the U.S. economic and political strength has deteriorated and in recent months there is evidence of a huge reluctance by the U.S. for continued military involvement in the Middle East which would be expensive, cause substantial loss of life and whose successful outcomes are doubtful.
So overall, the trends of the last few months, would suggest power realignments in favour of Iran, Syria and Hizbollah backed by Russia and a decline of the influence of nations backed by the U.S. This is especially evident in Egypt whose internal dysfunction and the possibility of huge economic disaster looms. Turkey’s relationship with Israel remains ambivalent and the rest of the Middle East except Jordan appears aloof. What will happen to Syria’s relationship to Israel remains unclear, but it seems likely that the rebel forces in Syria are a mixed bag of disunited groups some of doubtful genre so that their ability to unite and form a new government in Syria is highly questionable. However, the forces arraigned against Israel are slowly increasing and it would seem that they could rain huge numbers of missiles on Israel with uncertain results.
Quite mysterious is the continued reluctance of Western powers to support peace in Syria with Assad retaining authority. As a result, external powers continue to support both sides of the opposing powers so that the tragic, ongoing loss of life and internal terrible suffering continues. Political factors seem to have greater priority than stopping the continued tragic suffering of the Syrian people. And today the internal conflict in Syria has stalemated, but now Assad seems to be slowly gaining the ascendancy and the human tragedy grows as external powers selfishly try to protect their own agenda. As much as we abhor the use of chemical weapons, the achievement of an agreement on their use is really a sideshow as almost all of the suffering is due to conventional weapons about which no treaty seems near.
We continue to watch for a treaty involving many nations in the Middle East which will have major worldwide significance and signal the beginning of the end times as suggested by the end of the age scenario in Daniel 9:27. We considered whether the UN resolution on the dismantling of chemical weapons in Syria would have that stature, but consider that very unlikely. Currently, Russia and the U.S. have called for the Geneva 2 peace conference on Syria in November 2013 involving all participants without preconditions. If this was successful, it may have the required stature. We will wait and see what happens.
One gets the feeling that the U.S. is publicly trying to preserve its original status in the world, but secretly working towards a political solution to bring peace while trying to minimise the cost to its political status in the Middle East. To many, this will look like a continuation of its double standards. In this ambivalent situation, Turkey lies in a strange position and it’s unclear where its loyalties truly lie as it probably is genuinely uncertain. It has strong ties to the U.S., wants better relations with Russia and Iran and is perhaps superficially on the same side as Israel in a fragile relationship more dictated by pressure from the U.S. than anything else.
For Israel, it would seem its security in the Middle East is declining. The U.S. while still strongly supporting Israel, is seeking a solution involving a measure of peace with Israel’s strongest opponents. Thus the forces threatening Israel’s survival are growing in strength whereas those supporting her survival are weakening. Thus Israel is increasingly being isolated. So Israel will retain its independence to the extent necessary for its survival, even if it receives enormous help from the U.S. The hint that Israel might be talking with Saudi Arabia and other gulf states is interesting as also Netanyahu’s word to the UN that it might be willing to go it alone against Iran’s ongoing nuclear development. The huge instability in the Middle East continues with oscillation between near major military conflict and the hope of peace.
Given the Bible’s forecasts that there will be one more successful invasion of Israel, we infer that there will come a time when the U.S. will not be able to provide the support that Israel needs. Extrapolating from the current situation, this most likely will occur because of economic weakness. It already seems apparent that the U.S. is reluctant to directly involve itself in Syria and the internal position is now strongly favouring Assad’s survival, primarily because of the support from Iran, Hizbollah and Russia. China also seems to favour Assad although it is unclear whether this is more than words. At the same time, the U.S., Turkey, Jordan and perhaps Saudi Arabia have backed down from the level of support they were giving to the rebels. Perhaps because some of the rebels are terrorist organisations. So Russia is gaining influence and the U.S. seems to be losing it.
In the end, it would seem that Israel will have to defend itself from its own resources. It will have to fight alone against the might of the surrounding nations. In the end, the U.S. is likely to lose its influence in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia and other oil rich nations in the Middle East will not be supplying oil to the West. The West’s economy will decline so that their focus will be on maintaining their internal condition. Although internally still powerful, they will not be able to project their military power into the Middle East. Israel will be isolated. This will set up the conditions in the Bible for the final invasion of Israel. The end time picture in the Bible could be arrived at in many ways and the Bible does not give us a lot of detail, however, the above scenario seems to be one plausible way that picture could be reached.
Whatever transpires, Israel must track its own unique path. It cannot yield on Jerusalem. It will not yield on the West Bank or Gaza unless its security can be guaranteed. Eventually, the surrounding nations will try to impose their favoured solution on Israel. The conditions are heading towards those that the Bible describes, especially in Ezekiel 38 and 39.